EBRD sees fragile recovery in 2010
EBRD sees fragile recovery in 2010
The economies of central and eastern Europe are expected to contract by an average of 6.3 per cent in 2009 following steep output declines in the first half of the year. Signs of positive growth in the third quarter of 2009 suggest that the recession is now bottoming out in many countries of the EBRD region. However, any upturn in 2010 is likely to be fragile and patchy.
The EBRD’s Transition Report 2009 points out there are likely to be significant cross-country differences in output growth in 2010, masked by an average growth rate for the region of about 2.5 per cent. “It is also clear that the social costs of the global economic crisis are only likely to be felt in earnest next year, when corporate bankruptcies and unemployment will continue to rise. Growth over the medium term in the EBRD region is also likely to be below the trend experienced over the last decade,” said EBRD Chief Economist Erik Berglof.
Although year on year growth in 2010 is now projected to be higher than the 1.5 per cent seen in the EBRD’s May forecasts, this mostly reflects the recovery from a deeper than anticipated downturn in the first half of this year, rather than a more vigorous economy during 2010.
Factors restraining growth in 2010 include the subdued pace of export market recovery (particularly in the Euro area) and continuing tight credit conditions, as banks continue gradually to shrink their assets in the region and as lending to households and small firms remains constrained by rising non-performing loans.
Economies that continue to face problems in their banking sectors and domestic obstacles to a return of confidence could contract further in 2010 or show only flat growth.
The economies of central and eastern Europe are expected to contract by an average of 6.3 per cent in 2009 following steep output declines in the first half of the year. Signs of positive growth in the third quarter of 2009 suggest that the recession is now bottoming out in many countries of the EBRD region. However, any upturn in 2010 is likely to be fragile and patchy.
The EBRD’s Transition Report 2009 points out there are likely to be significant cross-country differences in output growth in 2010, masked by an average growth rate for the region of about 2.5 per cent. “It is also clear that the social costs of the global economic crisis are only likely to be felt in earnest next year, when corporate bankruptcies and unemployment will continue to rise. Growth over the medium term in the EBRD region is also likely to be below the trend experienced over the last decade,” said EBRD Chief Economist Erik Berglof.
Although year on year growth in 2010 is now projected to be higher than the 1.5 per cent seen in the EBRD’s May forecasts, this mostly reflects the recovery from a deeper than anticipated downturn in the first half of this year, rather than a more vigorous economy during 2010.
Factors restraining growth in 2010 include the subdued pace of export market recovery (particularly in the Euro area) and continuing tight credit conditions, as banks continue gradually to shrink their assets in the region and as lending to households and small firms remains constrained by rising non-performing loans.
Economies that continue to face problems in their banking sectors and domestic obstacles to a return of confidence could contract further in 2010 or show only flat growth.
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