EBRD ups 2010 forecasts for some countries
Following a contraction of real GDP of about six per cent in 2009, the EBRD now expects average growth for the region of 3.3 per cent in 2010, compared to 2.5 per cent predicted in October. For 2011, the EBRD predicts average regional growth of 3.8 per cent.
The upward revision is driven by stronger than expected performance in four large economies in the region: , , , and , on the back of stronger commodity prices, and a resumption of capital flows to large emerging market countries.
In contrast, for most of the smaller countries that do not export commodities, the recovery will continue to be slow, and in some cases (the Baltic countries and ) EBRD expects to see continued negative growth in 2010. “The recovery in the region remains fragile, with large variations across countries. The gradual global recovery will support regional growth, but local factors will dampen it. Appropriate public and private sector policies and actions to clean up balance sheets, restructure debt and deal with distressed assets will be important to help sustain credit growth and support economic recovery,” said Chief Economist Erik Berglof.
In central Europe and the Baltic states , the EBRD expects average growth of 1.4 per cent in 2010. In the Baltics and growth is expected to remain negative in 2010 despite a gradual bottoming out of the deep recession. , and are likely to benefit from a rebound in eurozone growth, being deeply integrated into Western European manufacturing production and having entered the crisis with more moderate domestic demand growth.
On average, south-eastern Europe will have similar growth as central Europe and the Baltic states but with significant heterogeneity. Parts of south-eastern Europe may benefit from a rebound in metals prices or from capital inflows following a recent rating upgrade. The recovery in Romania and Bulgaria, on the other hand, will likely be slowed by fiscal tightening.
The upward revision is driven by stronger than expected performance in four large economies in the region: , , , and , on the back of stronger commodity prices, and a resumption of capital flows to large emerging market countries.
In contrast, for most of the smaller countries that do not export commodities, the recovery will continue to be slow, and in some cases (the Baltic countries and ) EBRD expects to see continued negative growth in 2010. “The recovery in the region remains fragile, with large variations across countries. The gradual global recovery will support regional growth, but local factors will dampen it. Appropriate public and private sector policies and actions to clean up balance sheets, restructure debt and deal with distressed assets will be important to help sustain credit growth and support economic recovery,” said Chief Economist Erik Berglof.
In central Europe and the Baltic states , the EBRD expects average growth of 1.4 per cent in 2010. In the Baltics and growth is expected to remain negative in 2010 despite a gradual bottoming out of the deep recession. , and are likely to benefit from a rebound in eurozone growth, being deeply integrated into Western European manufacturing production and having entered the crisis with more moderate domestic demand growth.
On average, south-eastern Europe will have similar growth as central Europe and the Baltic states but with significant heterogeneity. Parts of south-eastern Europe may benefit from a rebound in metals prices or from capital inflows following a recent rating upgrade. The recovery in Romania and Bulgaria, on the other hand, will likely be slowed by fiscal tightening.
Citeşte mai multe despre:
EBRD, Europe, GDP
S-ar putea să îți placă:
COMENTARII:
Fii tu primul care comenteaza